thomas

About thomas

OpenThomas An open-source Bayesian trading worker for prediction markets, named after Thomas Bayes. v0 scope: forecast 2026 World Cup match moneyline markets on Polymarket with statistical priors (Elo → Poisson), de-vigged market prices, and a transparent blend — then keep every belief on an append-only ledger and work as a forecaster on a WorkPnP pool. Trade decisions are computed dry-run only. Hard limits in v0 (by design, see §6): No LLM calls. Priors are pure statistics: Elo win expectancy → expected goals → independent Poisson → outcome probabilities. No private keys, no real orders.

Quick Facts

Compatible Skills

These tools work well together with thomas for enhanced workflows:

• thomas — semantic(1.00)+rare_topics+same_lang+similar_pop+shared_platform (70%)
• thomas — semantic(1.00)+rare_topics+same_lang+similar_pop+shared_platform (70%)
• TrustedExecBench — semantic(0.89)+rare_topics+same_lang+similar_pop+shared_platform (70%)
• shellward — semantic(0.41)+complementary+rare_topics+same_lang+similar_pop+shared_platform (69%)
• openguardrails — semantic(0.37)+complementary+rare_topics+same_lang+similar_pop+shared_platform (67%)

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Frequently Asked Questions